Talking the Tropics w/ Mike: Rafael dissipates as Caribbean again looks to be area to watch

Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Preparation Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app

FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android

WATCH “Preparing for the Storm”

WATCH “The Ins & Outs of Hurricane Season”

READ the First Alert Hurricane Center “Preparation Guide”

LISTEN “First Alert Weather, Preparing for the Storm. The behaviors that could put your family at risk this hurricane season”

Federal Alliance for Safe Homes (FLASH) * here *.

***** ALWAYS CHECK & RE-CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST & UPDATES! ****

Tropics threats for Jacksonville/NE Florida/SE Georgia: None.

“Buresh Bottom Line”:

* After a Cat. 3 landfall late last Wed. 40 miles SW of Havana, Rafael dissipated over the Gulf of Mexico Sunday.

* The Caribbean again looks to be area to watch & monitor in the coming days

* “Mighty Milton” - Buresh Blog - recap of the hurricane including the forecast.

* “The Hell that was Helene” - Buresh Blog.

The Atlantic Basin Overview:

(1) Rafael:

The last advisory on Rafael was issued Sunday.

(2) The Caribbean again looks like an area to watch as low pressure forms by late in the week into the weekend over the Central or Western Caribbean. The GFS & European models are quite aggressive showing the low eventually becoming a hurricane & moving into the Southern Gulf of Mexico next week the being swept east by an incoming upper level trough. Climavision ‘HorizonAI’ global model below does show the system over the Western Caribbean Friday but then moves it inland over Central America. How fast & how deep the upper level trough is will dictate any move north & east & will have to be carefully monitored for possible impacts to the U.S. next week.

‘Velocity potential anomalies’ below shows “rising” air (green lines) across the Atlantic Basin which equates with an uptick in overall convection. With rising air, conditions are generally more favorable for tropical development. An upward “pulse” has centered itself over the Atlantic Basin which aided Rafael during the past week & the tail end of this pulse may help a disturbance over the Caribbean.

REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.

Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage might occur.

The upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean is very high:

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

November tropical cyclone origins:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for November:

Wind shear (red - strong shear; green - low shear):

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa driven by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air = yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that *can* interfere with the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the dust plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable (we’ve already seen this with Beryl & Debby this year). In my personal opinion, there is way too much “hoopla” about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.

2024 names..... “Sara” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18 (the last time this year’s list was used)... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous because of the ‘04 season when Charley, Frances, Jeanne & Ivan - all retired names - hit Florida within a matter of about 6 weeks. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

Hurricane season climatology:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The colors will brighten greatly as the water warms to greater depths deeper into the season: